A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE RISK OF ACUTE CORONARY SYNDROME IN PATIENTS WITH UNDIFFERENTIATED CONNECTIVE TISSUE DYSPLASIA

Abstract

The article presents the results of a study of 220 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) against the background of undifferentiated connective tissue dysplasia syndrome (UCTDS) conducted to develop a mathematical model for predicting the risk of acute coronary syndrome in patients with UCTDS. For this purpose, passport-anamnestic data (age, gender, severity of dysplasia syndrome) and laboratory indicators (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, lipid metabolism indicators, levels of homocysteine, oxyproline, and magnesium in the blood) were examined. As an outcome, the prognostic model considered 2 variants of the development of events during 1 year of follow–up: 0 - ACS did not develop, 1 – ACS developed. The cut-off threshold was assumed to be 0.5. If the calculated probability value is less than 0.5, then it is assumed that the event will not occur, if this value is equal to or exceeds 0.5, then it is assumed that the event will occur. The developed mathematical model makes it possible to establish a direct relationship between homocysteine, oxyproline and the atherogenicity index with the probability of developing ACS, and an inverse relationship of magnesium with the probability of developing ACS has also been revealed.