HERPES SIMPLEX VİRUSUNA YOLUXMUŞ ATOPİK DERMATİTLİ UŞAQLARDA ATOPİYANIN GEDİŞİNİN PROQNOSTİK ALQORİTMİ

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The article presents the results of a study of 140 children with atopic dermatitis (AtD) aged 2 to 12 years and 70 healthy controls. The study aimed to develop an algorithm for predicting the development of associated atopic pathology in children with atopic dermatitis infected with the herpes simplex virus (HSV). To create a mathematical model for predicting the probability of developing an atopic march in children with AtD against the background of HSV, the binary logistic regression method was used. The quality assessment of the developed model was carried out using ROC analysis, with the calculation of the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Through multivariate logistic regression analysis, a prognostic algorithm was developed for the onset of atopic exacerbations in children with AtD infected with HSV. It was found that a serum vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) level of 19.15 ng/ml could be considered a "cut-off point" for predicting the development of the "atopic march" in children with AtD infected with HSV. The developed algorithm demonstrates high sensitivity (82%), specificity (90%), and predictive value (90%), supporting its recommendation for use in clinical practice.